Chin-up David, It's not a blow but an opportunity.

In the most recent Fairfax Media-Ipsos (how many bloody names does it need?) poll, the post leadership election high David Cunliffe was enjoying, has burned out. No matter, it was always going to. I predicted as much although I have to admit being wrong on the timing (I thought the numbers would remain solid until the lead up to Christmas) but right in principle: the swell of support for Labour was shallow, only a temporary side affect of a fresh presence and frequent media attention. See the news story about the poll here.

This is not to say that Cunliffe has failed however, his greatest risk was the thin bubble of support not bursting until much later, for then he would not have the luxury of time to build a sturdy base of support before the next election. John Key is in a strong position, this cannot be contradicted, and he now has a strengthening economy and returning expat population to add weight to his bid for a third term.

What this does for Key is cement his position as National Party Leader until after the general election. Judith Collins in positioning herself to succeed him, but she won't stage a coup this term. In fact she will likely wait until Key goes of his own accord, then step in with the support of the 2008 and 2011 intake of National MPs

This should not concern the leftists, because David Cunliffe is at his best when his back is up against the wall. It's how he rebuilt his profile after Shearer demoted him, it is the nature of strong leaders. Helen Clark in 1996, Tony Blair in the lead up to the campaign in Kosovo. Achievements have to be taken though struggle and effort, and that is what Cunliffe is good at. Now he has the time and the opportunity. You want people to get out and vote? Then tell them you are going to save them from a disastrous National majority government, the likes of which no seen under MMP. Cunliffe will do this with his characteristic evangelical flair. 

Zero Dark Thirty

I finally got around to sitting down and watching Kathryn Bigalow's tale of the decade long manhunt for Osama Bin Laden. While just as uncomfortable in parts as I expected it to be, this film is utterly captivating. Having not yet seen the Hurt Locker (I know, I know) I don't have a point of reference from which to hang an in depth analysis, but I shall do my best in a few words. There is no romance, nor sex to give relief from the gritty and superbly realistic scenes of, Jessica Chastain gives a phenomenal performance. Charged by some as supporting torture, by others as criticizing the "enhanced interrogation techniques" of the Bush-era, Zero Dark Thirty does not actually do either of these things. Rather, it shows the torture and water-boarding as realistically as possible, showing too the toll it takes on the perpetrators, and the reliability of information gleaned from such means.

Bigalow avoided taking any particular stance with her film, few subjects are as mired in controversy and it would have been easy to get lost in political propaganda. The relentless search for Bin Laden needs no justification beyond that he was still managing Al-Qeada, and since 9/11 they had attacked Spain, Bali, London, New York. His location inside Pakistan and the need for the United States to engage in a covert operation without the prior knowledge of the corrupt Pakistani government narrowed the options of the team that went in and killed the terrorist. In a more perfect world I confess I would like to have seen him captured and put on trial, but that simply was not possible. He had to die. The film treats this extremely well by portraying it as a hard won end in a decade long enterprize that brought neither joy nor sadness. Chastain is critical to making this feel genuine, and she does with great aplomb. 

I really can say no more except that Zero Dark Thirty is an indispensable film. It is as crucial to the story of the war on terror as Schindler's List is to those studying the holocaust. Its remarkable to have lived through the post 9/11 period and now have a bookend like Zero Dark Thirty to conclude the epoch.  

The assault scene is gripping and spectacular.

Kick-Ass 2: Review of Sad Spoils

2010 delivered a stunning dash of originality with Kick-Ass, a fully realized comic book adaption that floated above the sea of the washed up cinematic failures, despite the existence of a fair number of narrative cliches and archetypal traps. It did so because it featured charismatic and memorable characters, a plot grounded in believable motivation, startling emotional depth, and it had the feel as if the film itself was ironically winking at you. Kick-Ass 2 while not sinking in the washed up sea, was content to float in it.

The main problem (though not the only one) was that the concept was misconceived. The original sin was to not make it clear at the outset that it was either Hit-Girl, or Kick-Ass's story. Jeff Wadlow endeavored to do both and therin lies the root of the problem. Hit-Girl stole the previous film, and Hit-Girl was who audiences wanted to see. The studio knew that and that is why they engaged in their misjudged fiddling with the screenplay, to try to lessen Hit-Girl's abrasiveness and take her on a journey through stereotypical high school girlhood. The reason ostensibly was to better reflect her older age. But that's not what we wanted. We fell for the Hit-Girl who puts a blade through a thugs chest and then addresses the four remaining thugs as 'cunts'. Fortunately we were not entirely deprived of the old Hit-Girl and Chloe Moretz is as brilliant as ever in her fight sequences. She even did her best with the banality of the material she was given in the conformity storyline.

The issue with that particular narrative soiree is that the idea of debutante style popular girls running the social gaol of high school, is a fiction to most people. I have never met an inmate of an American high school who says that a similar state of affairs exists at their institution. This is important because in holding up a stereotype for Ht-Girl/Mindy Mcreedy to conform to and ultimately reject, weakens the strength of her character, and it reduces all supporting characters around her to a single dimension. We like Hit-Girl because she is so radically different from us. By rejecting a place in a construct mired in cliche, she makes the same choice we would (that of refusing to conform) and becomes more similar. Thus she looses some of her power.

In basic terms the difference between Kick-Ass and Hit-Girl is the same as Luke Skywalker and Han Solo. As viewers we really want to be Han, but we feel more like Luke. We may not want to be Hit-Girl in quite the same way, but she is the bad-ass we admire. Kick-Ass is who we are.

Compounding the difficulties of the aforementioned story is that it plays out in tandem with the character development of Dave Lizuski aka Kick-Ass. First of all he is far less interesting than Hit-Girl, secondly his power as a character is he reflects us the viewers. He never really had a motivation to don the wet-suit and mask beyond that he was tired of petty thugs mugging with impunity, and the vague frustration that no-one before had tried to become a super hero. The makers of this film (I am not sure whether to accuse director Jeff Wadlow since the studio did interfere with calamitous results) decided it would make sense to give him one. Not content with this they chose to kill off his father to achieve a Bruce Wayne style dedication to the punishment of crime. As buttock-clenchingly cliched as this is, it serves to distance the audience from its ambassador, and waste the versatile talents of actor Garrett M. Brown. The abbreviated nature of his death deprived it of much of the emotional impact the film desperately needed. Nicholas Cage's death scene as Big-Daddy in Kick-Ass pulled this off superbly, and Chloe Moretz desperate fight in the strobe light as Big-Daddy burned was an absolutely stunning piece of cinema.

With the character development mishandled the final confrontation felt contrived, entertaining though it was. Again Moretz deserves high praise for her physical performance, Aaron Tailor-Johnson was also much more convincing in the physicality of his role. He clearly worked very hard to get into shape, and the lean, tough shape his character suggests. All the performers were exemplary, it is a very great pity that they were served with such drivel and expected to exceed the success of the first film. I hope I do not convince anyone to not see the film who otherwise would (it seems a trifle arrogant to believe I ever could do that), it is very entertaining and the action is of a high standard. Just don't expect the glory that was 2010 Kick-Ass, as we now know that really was one of a kind.

Post Script: On the off chance that a Universal executive reads this, if you do greenlight a sequel please for the love of all that is holy make it focus on Hit-Girl! That's the movie we wanted, with as many cuss words as possible.

Laws opines, I overturn.

I aimed to be in bed early, alas reading the latest column by Michael Laws entitled Journalists can't handle the truth, compelled me to continue to fight Morpheus and write a terse riposte. Laws opinion piece can be found here.

First of all I have to point out that even if Michael Laws is of average intelligence, he is significantly challenged in the business of cobbling together a clear argument. How someone so spectacularly stupid can be a featured columnist for the Sunday Star-Times vindicates my low opinion of both. He begins with a whine about how we as voters do not have faith in the leaders we elect. He says this is "One of the great dichotomies of democracy". Well, to begin with it is not a dichotomy its a paradox. As is his assumption that we avidly consume the news while maintaining a grudge against the media. Again this is a vague paradox, not a dichotomy.

The central fallacy of Laws's snotty piece is his haughty pronouncement that the job of journalists is to "... relay the facts and let us make up our own minds". Journalists are not courtroom stenographers, and no piece of information in public life can reach the ears (or eyes) of the humble voter without some degree of spin and prior interpretation. It is simply erroneous to cry havoc over a journalist seizing upon a piece of data and using it as part of an argument. In the squalid world of Laws's feeble imagination there would be nothing readable, and every tedious article of mindless fact relay would be an insult to most of the public who posses the fortitude to sort through fact and opinion, reaching conclusions on their own anyway.

Its very surprising that two terms as an MP, a smattering of years as an incompetent mayor, and his constant vitriolic mouthing off on radio has left Michael Laws with no appreciation of the role of the media. As with anyone who gets their botox in a clump over an incidence of hypocrisy, Laws forgets that everyone is hypocritical, and we all manage to maintain two sets of books while continuing to operate without the obvious effects of cognitive dissonance.

As for Laws clumsy attempt at pumping up his deflated article by referencing George Orwell's Animal Farm, see if you, dear reader can make heads or tails of it, I cannot see his point. It is outrageous to me that he goes after journalism in this half-baked fashion, since I (or anyone else) could defend it with ease if his attack was more coherent. Just don't dare mischaracterise the profession, as it is one I hope to join it just pisses me off.

ALP No Roadmap For NZ Labour

With the inevitable switch around of Australian Prime Ministers in June, the movement to oust NZ Labour leader David Shearer before the 2014 election, may to some extent face renewal. The reasons are obvious, the latest poll results show a dismally flattened Labour caucus looking forward to another term in the airy cold of political irrelevance. Further, the Australian Labor Party under Kevin Rudd (who looks exactly the same as if the Julia interregnum never happened) is enjoying a period in the sun. The election date has been set for September 7 and it looks likely that the government will claw its way back to the cabinet table.
         
However it is vitally important to sustain in the mind the following crucial differences. The pressure on an under-performing government to shed its dead weight in order to keep itself in office, is unequivocally greater than the pressure on an opposition party to change its face and snatch the government benches. From atop the mountain the risk and fear of falling is fundamentally stronger than similar fears at base camp.
         
Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard are not the same fruit as David Shearer and David Cunliffe. The relationship between Rudd and Gillard was close, perhaps not in terms of trust, but close nonetheless. They took Labor to victory in 2007 and were in government as leader and deputy until Brutus's blade appeared in Julia's hand. Both have been elected Prime Minister in their own right, in 2007 and 2010 respectively. Shearer and Cunliffe have never enjoyed a close working relationship, their political positions have clear differences, and neither have led Labour to a general election. This diminishes the effectiveness of taking an Australian example to predict developments in New Zealand politics.
         
Where does this leave us? Here is my prediction as it stands at the present point. David Shearer will not be toppled this year, he remains a greater force than Cunliffe (who's supporters I predict will abandon him soon after he takes the job), and needs to face the test of an election. Labour will loose. It remains half smarmy inexperience, half the sour dregs from the last government. The stars of the Clark era played themselves out of parliament, because they were smarter than the pilot fish left behind. This incarnation of Labour can not, and should not govern. The Key government will scrape through along with their support parties to a slim majority, the cracks appearing now will open into fissures and there will be plenty to make fun of in the next term. I don't count on John Key remaining for the whole term, and I expect a mess of political corpses at the end. In the meantime Labour's ghosts (Mallard, Goff, King, O'Conner, Jones, Dyson, Cunliffe) should be exorcised, their brand renewed, and a proper leader elected. Then they will truly be a government-in-waiting.

A Green Riposte

After Green Party co-leader Russel Norman posted a qualification of his comparison of John Key and Robert Muldoon on his blog, I thought I would briefly offer some rebuttal. You can access Norman's blog here.

The way Russel Norman argues in favor of the broader comparison is by applying three categories: concentration and abuse of power, rigidity against change, and overall divisiveness. I will try to be terse, here we go:

Concentration and abuse of power.

The essence of Norman’s criticism is that John Key is sidelining Parliamentary process by putting it into urgency numerous times to pass legislation that negatively impacts the rights of citizens. I cannot and do not argue with this point and I think that the Prime Minister has relied on this particular lever of power far too often.

I concur with Dr Norman’s criticism that the temporary shutdown of local democracy in Canterbury and empowerment of the Minister in charge to effectively change local law in isolation, while the people continue to pay rates without representation.  The GCSB tightening has also taken a nibble at the proverbial pie of liberty, as has the pernicious outlawing of protest on the high seas. This raises my hackles, as it should others.

But John Key and the government have also taken the devolutionary measure of establishing the Auckland Super City, and are currently clashing with Len Brown over transport/infrastructure policy. If we view power as being zero-sum, John Key has certainly lost some power. This is not what Muldoonism is made of. So while I agree that the PM has abused his power, I cannot let the assertion be uncontested that there has been an unusual concentration of power.

Rigidity against Change.

Despite the problems found in asset sales, John Key is refusing to budge. I find this a puzzling accusation, because it requires acceptance of the proposition that campaign pledges of the victorious party in an election, should be abandoned because of a few bumps in the road, or a petition so far insufficient to trigger a referendum. It is my view that the opposition parties have been whipping a horse so long dead, that not even the knackers would take it.

On the environment John Key and his cohort are definitely rigid, even backward in their policies. But again the charge of rigidity as a broad definition of the government is misapplied if it is to be wholly regarded (as I believe Russel Norman intends) as a negative attribute.     

Divisiveness.

On the point of John Key’s divisiveness, Russel Norman is most feeble. He argues that National began in 2008 on a stance of greater unity, with deals with the Maori Party, and the Greens (an understanding, not a confidence agreement). The charge that a government past the median of their second term is unusually divisive is to take a blindfolded reading of recent history. It is the nature of governments that they become less cooperative as time goes on. Helen Clark’s labour-progressive coalition government in 2005 was a far cry from the labour-alliance coalition in 1999.  The longer the Bolger/Shipley ministry stayed in office the more fractured and discordant it became. This pattern is the norm.

The Prime Minister and the right wing commentators who have disgustingly suggested that Russel Norman shut up because he is a migrant is, as he quite rightly puts, worthy of Muldoon. But that is the only thing that is. 

Tedious Smearing, the Greens appear Yellow

Last week the co-leader of the New Zealand Parliamentary Green Party Dr Russel Norman, struck out at Prime Minister John Key and the National-led Government. I don't want to unintentionally misrepresent myself when I say that his attack was overwhelmingly dull and predictable. Political attacks of this sort and at this point in the electoral cycle are the bread and butter of opposition politics; the proverbial sword is unsheathed from now until the election. It was annoying to wait so long. But here after all the anticipation the attack by Dr Norman was uncharacteristically primitive, and such a disappointment.

The most soporific part was his invocation of the worn cliche that is comparing the current Prime Minister to the notoriously obstinate Sir Robert Muldoon. A similar comparison was drawn between Key's predecessor Helen Clark and Muldoon at about this time in her tenure (and continuing with increasing frequency until her defeat). This has become the cliche that stupid people can draw and respond to. Rather like comparing Margaret Thatcher to Caligula, or arguing in favour of the 'Presidentialisation' of Tony Blair. It is unlikely that Norman was after the National voter with his attack, nor was he going for any more of Labour's tepid support. His saccharine praises for David Shearer tell that much. He was merely appealing to his base and I argue that the fuel he used is cheap; his base easily satiated, and the Greens less formidable than they appeared earlier this year.

The reason the comparison with Sir Robert Muldoon is an unhelpful cliche, is that he was a Prime Minister with a vast array of buttons and leavers, to control the political system and the country. New Zealand had a statist face completely unrecognizable next to the face it wears today. Quite a few of the buttons and leavers Muldoon had at his disposal just don't work any more, many are absent altogether. Reliance on the picture of government thirty years ago is to critically misread the present narrative of politics. If a misapplication of the narrative informs the attack designated to appeal to the base, then both the attacker and the base are walking in the sunny transience of their own fantasy.