Chin-up David, It's not a blow but an opportunity.

In the most recent Fairfax Media-Ipsos (how many bloody names does it need?) poll, the post leadership election high David Cunliffe was enjoying, has burned out. No matter, it was always going to. I predicted as much although I have to admit being wrong on the timing (I thought the numbers would remain solid until the lead up to Christmas) but right in principle: the swell of support for Labour was shallow, only a temporary side affect of a fresh presence and frequent media attention. See the news story about the poll here.

This is not to say that Cunliffe has failed however, his greatest risk was the thin bubble of support not bursting until much later, for then he would not have the luxury of time to build a sturdy base of support before the next election. John Key is in a strong position, this cannot be contradicted, and he now has a strengthening economy and returning expat population to add weight to his bid for a third term.

What this does for Key is cement his position as National Party Leader until after the general election. Judith Collins in positioning herself to succeed him, but she won't stage a coup this term. In fact she will likely wait until Key goes of his own accord, then step in with the support of the 2008 and 2011 intake of National MPs

This should not concern the leftists, because David Cunliffe is at his best when his back is up against the wall. It's how he rebuilt his profile after Shearer demoted him, it is the nature of strong leaders. Helen Clark in 1996, Tony Blair in the lead up to the campaign in Kosovo. Achievements have to be taken though struggle and effort, and that is what Cunliffe is good at. Now he has the time and the opportunity. You want people to get out and vote? Then tell them you are going to save them from a disastrous National majority government, the likes of which no seen under MMP. Cunliffe will do this with his characteristic evangelical flair. 

Zero Dark Thirty

I finally got around to sitting down and watching Kathryn Bigalow's tale of the decade long manhunt for Osama Bin Laden. While just as uncomfortable in parts as I expected it to be, this film is utterly captivating. Having not yet seen the Hurt Locker (I know, I know) I don't have a point of reference from which to hang an in depth analysis, but I shall do my best in a few words. There is no romance, nor sex to give relief from the gritty and superbly realistic scenes of, Jessica Chastain gives a phenomenal performance. Charged by some as supporting torture, by others as criticizing the "enhanced interrogation techniques" of the Bush-era, Zero Dark Thirty does not actually do either of these things. Rather, it shows the torture and water-boarding as realistically as possible, showing too the toll it takes on the perpetrators, and the reliability of information gleaned from such means.

Bigalow avoided taking any particular stance with her film, few subjects are as mired in controversy and it would have been easy to get lost in political propaganda. The relentless search for Bin Laden needs no justification beyond that he was still managing Al-Qeada, and since 9/11 they had attacked Spain, Bali, London, New York. His location inside Pakistan and the need for the United States to engage in a covert operation without the prior knowledge of the corrupt Pakistani government narrowed the options of the team that went in and killed the terrorist. In a more perfect world I confess I would like to have seen him captured and put on trial, but that simply was not possible. He had to die. The film treats this extremely well by portraying it as a hard won end in a decade long enterprize that brought neither joy nor sadness. Chastain is critical to making this feel genuine, and she does with great aplomb. 

I really can say no more except that Zero Dark Thirty is an indispensable film. It is as crucial to the story of the war on terror as Schindler's List is to those studying the holocaust. Its remarkable to have lived through the post 9/11 period and now have a bookend like Zero Dark Thirty to conclude the epoch.  

The assault scene is gripping and spectacular.